People Ask Me: “Is Cuba Going to Change?”

I’ve been traveling to Cuba for 15 years, and one the most frequent questions people here in the U.S. ask me about Cuba is, “Is Cuba going to change?” I’m always puzzled as to how to answer. Cuba is always changing. I’ve seen a large amount of change in 15 years, and many changes have occurred in the decades since the Revolution. In the 1990s there was much change as Cuba adapted to the collapse of the Soviet Union, its greatest ally at that time. It would take volumes to write the history of Cuba over the almost 60 years since the Cuban Revolution, and it would cover many changes.

I understand, though, that this is not actually what people are asking when they say, “Is Cuba going to change?” These are people in the U.S. who have heard only the information about Cuba that has been edited and designed to demonize the Cuban Revolution. I know because I grew up with it. To most of the people in the U.S., “Is Cuba going to change?” means “Is the Cuban Revolution going to collapse, socialism end, and capitalism take over?” Usually this comes with visions of McDonald’s on the Malecón and casinos on every corner. We’ve been told for decades that Cuba is on the brink of collapse and that the people in Cuba are going to be grateful for the U.S. swooping in to rescue them. However, anyone who is knowledgeable about Cuba knows that if it hasn’t collapsed by now it’s not going to and that they don’t want us to interfere in their country.

Today, perhaps, I can answer both of these interpretations of the question, “Is Cuba going to change?” I don’t know what or how or how fast any changes will be. All countries change and evolve over time, and Cuba will make these decisions about itself. There have been ongoing discussions and debate within Cuba about many issues, especially the economy, and Cuba will continue to research, analyze, debate, reflect, and continue to build their version of Cuba. It is too much to discuss these issues here, but the general summary is that Cuba is dedicated to the ideals of the Revolution, wants to be socialist, and is continuing its journey toward achieving a successful socialist country. No one can predict exactly what will happen, and it’s not possible to be sure about success, but this is what Cuba has chosen. Therefore, today, the answer to the question, “Is Cuba going to change?” seems to be, “No, it will not abandon the Revolution, and, yes, it will evolve and have ongoing change.”

Why is today special in the context of this question? Cuba’s National Assembly voted in favor of the new Council of State, which includes the new president of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel. This is an historic moment because Cuba will have a new generation of leadership. Díaz-Canel was born after the Revolution in 1959 and is part of the next generation of leaders. For most of Cuba’s post-Revolution history, the country was led by the people who fought the revolution and who founded modern, post-Revolutionary Cuba. People tend to associate revolutionary Cuba with the two presidents it’s had for almost 60 years, Fidel Castro and Raúl Castro. As the older generation has aged, retired, and died, the next generation has been moving into positions of power, shifting to a leadership that is younger, more civilian, and more diverse, with increasing numbers of women. Raúl Castro will continue as the head of the Cuban Communist Party, and the transition to the new generation is expected to be stable and guided by the remaining historic leaders. Nevertheless, the change is meaningful and symbolic because it represents the Revolution as an institutionalized system rather than being tied to specific revolutionary heroes.

Another question that people have asked me is, “What will happen to Cuba without the Castros?” Maybe the answer is that it will not be as dramatic as expected. Fidel retired, lived some years in retirement, and was honored at his death with great ceremony. Raúl is partly retiring, will fully retire at some point, and will also receive much honor. Cuba will carry on with other leaders and a constantly evolving Revolution. I don’t know what specifically will happen, but I can’t wait to see this unique piece of world history unfold. I wish for Cuba the best and brightest future.